1995
The Soviet Union and People’s Republic of China go to war. The Soviets enjoy early success, penetrating deep into the northern Chinese industrial heartland. But the PRC mobilizes their reserves and shifts troops to the Soviet front and soon stalls their advance. They are aided by the Chinese citizens’ militias that spring up in the occupied territory and endlessly harass the Soviet supply lines and bases.
Less than 6 months into the campaign, the Chinese counterattacked, shattering the Soviet front and encircling large bodies of Soviet troops. Still, the Soviets are largely able to break out of these pockets and fall back, but their losses are massive.
Addressing this reversal, the Soviets pull several combat-ready divisions from Eastern Europe and mobilize units in their western military districts. The war rapidly becomes a meatgrinder for the Soviets, consuming divisions nearly as fast as they can be committed.
As the Soviet economy moves to a war footing, the already scarce flow of consumer goods dwindled away to nothing and the standard of living across the entirety of the Warsaw Pact falls. With the onset of winter, the Soviets ‘ask’ for the other Warsaw Pact nations to join the fighting. There is surprising resistance, although by the new year, Polish, Czech, and East German divisions are headed east by rail. Hungary and Bulgaria also commit divisions shortly after. Romania sends not 1 soldier east.
1996
The Soviet spring offensive makes good initial progress but stalls out in short order, suffering horrendous losses. Throughout the winter, Western nations, particularly the United States, showered the PRC with new equipment and this contributes to the devastating armor losses of the Soviet armies.
By the middle of 1996, nearly all of the Soviet’s second tier divisions were in the Far East as were almost 25% of their tier 1 Eastern European divisions. Most third tier divisions were upgraded to tier two to prepare for further losses and even their fourth tier home guard divisions were called up and began intensive training.
The other Warsaw Pact nations, appalled at their losses, only grudgingly committed additional units to the Soviets’ folly. In June, senior officers in the East German Army opened secret negotiations with the West German Bundeswehr and Luftwaffe.
In September, the Soviets made a third call for additional Pact troops to be ready to move east by mid-October. On October 7, the Bundeswehr crossed the East German border, targeting Soviet positions in the country. The East German army remained in its barracks.
The fifteen Soviet divisions in East Germany lost ground initially but their defense soon stiffened, reinforced by 2 Soviet divisions from Poland and 3 from Czechoslovakia. In mid-November, 2 Czech divisions and 4 Polish divisions joined the Soviet defensive effort in East Germany.
By the end of the month, the Bundeswehr was in trouble. The Soviet air force was doing heavy damage to their supply lines and their attacking divisions and West Germany didn’t have the manpower reserves of the Pact nations and Soviets. It was at this time that the East German army made its move. In a bloodless coup, the country’s civilian leadership was deposed and the army went to war against the occupying Pact forces. At the same time, the new government requested immediate aid from NATO.
While the European NATO governments debated the request, US forces immediately crossed the border. France, Belgium, Italy, and Greece demanded their immediate withdrawal until NATO made a decision. When the US refused, all 4 withdrew from the alliance. British and Canadian troops then joined the fighting. The Danish and Dutch didn’t withdraw from NATO, but neither did they join the fighting in East Germany.
The Soviets responded with a heavy attack on Norway that quickly stalled out due to its composition. Their best arctic troops were already in the Far East and the third tier divisions making up the bulk of the operation were simply unable to punch through NATO lines to link up with the paratroopers and marines that had landed deep behind the lines.
While their operation in Norway was coming apart, the Soviet’s sortied the Red Banner Northern Fleet and attempted to push through the GIUK gap into the north Atlantic. For 3 weeks the fleets battered each other. When it was over, 80% of the Soviet fleet rested on the bottom and the NATO navies were badly bloodied. Despite the victory for the west, enough of the Soviet ships got through to cause serious damage to NATO convoys in the Atlantic through the rest of the year and into the next.
Romania was given an ultimatum to supply divisions for Soviet command by Dec. 5, having thus far sat out both the war with China and the war with NATO. The deadline passed with Romanian troops mobilizing, but no formal response from the government. It took the Soviets until Dec. 20 to assemble an invasion force, but on that day, Hungarian, Bulgarian, and Soviet troops crossed the border. Romania formally withdrew from the Warsaw Pact in response and appealed to NATO for assistance.
Yugoslavia responded first, sending 3 divisions and 5 brigades into the country that were at the front, fighting under Romanian command within 48 hours. NATO offered full membership to both countries, which both accepted, and the Turkish 1st Army launched an offensive against the Bulgarian force in Thrace on Christmas Eve.
1997
On Jan. 1, NATO declares their support of a Polish government in exile. Worker uprisings in response to the news are quickly put down as most of the Polish army remains loyal to the Communist government. An underground does come together by spring time, strengthened by the small numbers of Polish troops who changed sides, that begins to harass Pact supply convoys and installations.
Also in January, anti-Greek riots in Cyprus lead to the Cypriot army mobilizing to restore order. In response, Turkey invades and occupies most of the island. Greece quickly declares war on Turkey and attacks in Cyprus and Thrace.
In February, Italy and Greece conclude a mutual defense pact. Italy is not obligated to enter the Turkey-Greece war, but declares that if NATO gets involved on Turkey’s behalf, it will join the fighting in defense of its new ally.
Late Winter sees Pact forces go on the offensive in southern Germany but make little progress. The first German troops cross the Polish border in April and by mid-June, Warsaw is surrounded and under siege.
NATO’s Atlantic fleets hunt down the last of the Soviet commerce raiders by late spring and join the northern offensive against the Soviets. Commanders hatch a bold plan to outflank the defenders through Finland, violating Finnish neutrality. The Finnish Army fight like demons, delaying the flanking maneuver dramatically. At sea, the Soviets’ missile boats and shore-based naval aviation assets cripple the NATO fleets. By the middle of June, the last major fleet in the world has been destroyed.
In Romania, the fighting stalls out. Soviet reinforcements allow Bulgaria to halt the Turkish advance there, particularly since Turkey had been forced to allocate more and more manpower to facing the Greek army.
Near the end of June, NATO attempts to resupply the Turks at their port of Izmir, but the Greek navy intercepts the convoy and inflicts heavy losses on it. Two days later, NATO retaliates with air strikes on Greek naval bases and in response, Greece declares war against NATO which promptly drags Italy into the fighting against the NATO nations.
July sees the Italians invade Austria, which puts up only token resistance and before the end of the month, Italian troops are in combat against the Bundeswehr in the suburbs of Munich. Yugoslavia tries to relieve the pressure by opening an offensive in northeastern Italy but it quickly stalls out. Worse, the troops for this offensive were pulled from their northern army group, which quickly shatters with its manpower so reduced.
Italy’s quick successes are due to having sat out the war to this point and facing combatants who have been at war now for some 6 months. With summer turning to fall, she feels the same pain as the other combatants as peacetime stocks are used up and manpower dwindles.
In central Asia, India and Pakistan stumble into open war as a series of border incidents escalate into generalized fighting all along the border.
By the start of July, NATO’s advance elements were nearing the Polish-Soviet border and the Polish government in exile had set up shop in Poznan. Warsaw was still besieged.
In response, the Soviets began withdrawing from the Far East front and the Chinese Army began a pursuit. On July 9, with the first elements of the 1st German Army putting boots on Soviet soil, the Soviets began using tactical nuclear weapons. On the western front, they practiced some restraint, using them only on massed troop concentrations within 50km of the Soviet border. In the east, however, they vaporized the pursuing Chinese armies and also nuked the population and industrial centers of northern China. The Chinese response was swift but mostly mitigated by the Soviet’s Anti-Ballistic Missile system and Air Defense Command. The Soviets continued to nuke China and before the month was out, China collapsed into anarchy.
On the western front, NATO matched the Soviets warhead for warhead. By late August, the Soviet divisions withdrawn from the far east were entering combat and the front lines began shifting west again.
The siege of Warsaw was lifted on Sep. 15 and a week later, the Czechs and Italians launched a joint offensive in southern Germany. NATO was forced to pull back across Poland to counter this threat and followed a scorched earth policy as they went.
Pact forces in Thrace began a major offensive against Turkey this same month and their use of nuclear weapons broke things open. By month’s end Bulgarian tanks were racing to Istanbul. Simultaneously, Greek and Albanian troops invaded southern Yugoslavia and the Yugoslavian army shattered. They recalled their forces from Romania but before they could return, Belgrade was in Italian hands. The remaining western forces in Romania and Yugoslavia fled into the mountains and began guerrilla operations.
NATO resorted to nuclear strikes against communication hubs deep behind the lines and the Soviets responded by nuking most of Germany’s ports and industrial centers. NATO replied in kind, targeting the western Soviet Union. The nuclear exchanges escalated through October. With both sides fearful of a general strategic exchange, they instead crept up to and then over the line, bit by bit. First it was just military targets. Then industrial targets vital to the war effort. Then transportation and communication, oil fields, and refineries. Then general industrial centers in neutral nations to deny their use to the opposition. Things petered out by the end of the year, with little of value left to nuke.
Not content to be left out, Pakistan launched a pre-emptive nuclear strike on India’s economy and nuclear forces. Enough of India’s weapons survive to devastate Pakistan and the war peters out as neither side can even feed their populations anymore, let alone equip armies.
1998
The winter of 1997-1998 is one of the coldest on record. Almost 15% of the civilian populations of the combatant nations were dead by the turn of the year and the worst was still yet to come. The nuclear exchange had devastated infrastructure and the resulting worldwide famine was on an undreamt of scale. Worse still, when the spring thaws hit, epidemics of cholera, typhus, and other diseases swept the world. By year’s end, more than 50% of the world’s population was dead.
France and Belgium, having sat the war out, were faced with floods of refugees from the rest of Europe. Both closed their borders and began firing on refugees to drive them away. France advanced west to the Rhine to establish a solid geographical border with which to enforce their no-refugees policy.
The end of winter saw the average NATO combat division down to about 8000 men, a third to half of peacetime strength. The average US combat division numbered only 4000. Most Warsaw Pact divisions numbered between 2000-4000, although lows of 500 and highs of 10000 were not rare. Lack of fuel, spare parts, ammunition, and food meant that the winter had passed with relatively little fighting.
A refugee crisis on the US southern border saw the US army respond, which prompted the Mexican Army to invade to protect Mexican citizens. The front stabilized in northeast Texas across to central California.
The Warsaw Pact renewed its offensive in southern Germany in late June, trying to seize surviving industrial sites. NATO rallied and stalled them out along a line from Frankfurt to Fulda.
In late August, NATO launched a drive into the Pact rear in Czechoslovakia. The Czech units were unable to stem the tide and Pact forces withdrew from southern Germany to respond, laying waste to the region as they left. The NATO advance stalled and troops eventually withdrew to the territory the Pact had abandoned in southern Germany.
As the autumn rains set in, fighting wound down and both sides began to prepare for another winter.
1999
In the spring, the US Congress reconvened for the first time since the nukes had flown. The former governor of Arkansas, John Broward, who had appointed himself to fill 1 of Arkansas’ 2 empty Senate seats, was elected President by the House of Representatives. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, General Jonathan Cummings, refused to recognize the election’s validity, citing lack of quorum and questions as to the validity of many of the Representatives. Several of them were local strong-men who’d conquered their Congressional district. Still others had simply shown up without having any sort of claim to a Congressional seat but, miraculously, were seated.
Cummings declared that martial law would continue until a new census could be completed and Congressional reapportionment could happen The new president demanded Cummings’ resignation, which he declined to present, and the US government fractured. Most of the armed forces stuck with the Joint Chiefs, while the CIA went with the civilian government. This had little effect on the troops in Europe because the Joint Chiefs and the newly christened Milgov controlled nearly all of the remaining telecommunications facilities in American control. Overseas, the Germans and the Polish government in exile recognized Milgov, while the Yugoslav and Romanian partisans stuck with Civgov. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), rapidly spun up an operations branch to replace the CIA for Milgov.
The fighting in Europe remained largely static throughout the year. To meet their provision and supply needs, units had begun to set up farms and small-scale manufacturing and the need to protect these resources. The breakdown in civil order and the number of fractured military units led to bands of marauders roaming the countryside. Civilian farmers and workers readily agreed to work for military units in exchange for security from these brigands.
1999 also saw the first large bodies of troops begin to ignore orders and go marauder, themselves.
2000
By springtime, most units were conducting extensive local recruiting to keep up numbers, leading the US units with Germans, Poles, Danes, and even former Warsaw Pact soldiers.
In early summer, the German Third Army, spearheaded by the US Eleventh Corps, moved out of its cantonments, beginning the last major NATO offensive of the war...
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