An Assessment of the Dispositions of the Houses of the Kingdom of Somercrag in the Spring of 454KS
For the attention of his Royal Highness King Tyon I Cray, from the office of his Royal Spymaster Lady Vaylian Goulsblud. Per his majesty's request, within this document is a list of Somercragian Houses and the factors which may contribute to their appetite for war, in particular their disposition towards House Cray of Bayglen, their disposition towards House Foxworth of Fairstrand, their adherence to the laws of the kingdom and how they may be expected to declare in the case of a war between the crown and The Foxworth Duchy.
The Men-at-Arms of House Foxworth - 61 Units.
It can be assumed that these houses, having already raised their banners for war, and being closely tied to the Foxworths, will declare for them, but it would be a mistake to dismiss investigation into their motivations for that reason alone.
The Men-at-Arms of House Blest - 8 Units.
With the Blests I feel we can skip the breakdown. They are barely to be considered a House, their seat has only broken ground in the past year, and they have few enough Men-at-Arms that they could almost be outnumbered by The Kingsguard alone. They will, however, bring whatever might they can in support of the Foxworths with absolute certainty.
The Men-at-Arms of House Quay - 29 Units.
Factors in the Crown's Favour:Factors Against the Foxworths:
- Like all Houses in the Kingdom, the Quays owe Vassalage to the Crown.
- The Quays may feel that the Foxworths hold some responsibility for The Disaster at Cainfield, which in particular led to the death of Lady Alexus Quay.
- Similarly, the Disaster at Cainfield led to the death of several of Quay's men, including ser Garrat Malver, a prominent Vassal of theirs.
Factors in the Foxworths' Favour:
- The Houses in the Foxworth Duchy also owe Vassalage to Fairstrand.
- Violett Quay, the Heir to Cainfield, served her education as Lady Ophelia Foxworth-Hayford's Ward and Handmaid.
- Violett now has as her husband ser Brandeth Quay, formerly Brandeth Crowler, a marriage made for her by Lady Ophelia, and whose other loyalties also incline him toward supporting the Foxworths.
- The Foxworths have spent the past several years building New Caincastle, the new seat of House Quay, at great personal expense, for which the Quays surely feel indebted.
- The Quays are a Martial household, and are likely to choose a route which leads to war over one which does not.
- As a House on the borders of Somercrag, the Quays stand to expand their land through conquest.
- Although the Quays are closely related to House Locke of Riverfoot, there is no love lost between ser Derrick Quay and ser Tearlach, the head of House Locke, so it is unlikely that relationship will sway the Quays one way or the other.
In conclusion, I can say with near certainty that the Quays will support the Foxworths. Especially since ser Derrick Quay has already raised his levies in support of the war against The Kingdom of Irogonie and it is my understanding that he is marching on Thurnon as I write this.
The Men-at-Arms of House Roseadwyn - 29 Units.
Factors in the Crown's Favour:
- Like all Houses in the Kingdom, the Roseadwyns owe Vassalage to the Crown.
- ser Jed Roseadwyn, the Lord of Redmouth, served as Squire to none other than King Tyon I Cray himself, forging close bonds with both the King and several members of The Kingsguard.
Factors in the Foxworths' Favour:
- The Houses in the Foxworth Duchy also owe Vassalage to Fairstrand.
- The Roseadwyns benefitted greatly from The Somercrag Rescue Effort of 448KS, an effort which the Foxworths had a considerable part in organising.
- The Roseadwyns are a Martial household, and are likely to choose a route which leads to war over one which does not.
- As a House on the borders of Somercrag, the Roseadwyns stand to expand their land through conquest.
ser Jed now has as his wife Laurane Roseadwyn-Ellmenrich, who served as a Handmaid to Lady Ophelia Foxworth-Hayford. However, it is just as likely that her Irogonian heritage will sway her against the war with Irogonie, so it is hard to say for whom this is a benefit.
In conclusion, I would say that if any of the Foxworth Vassals had a chance of remaining loyal to the crown, it would be the Roseadwyns. They were, however, the first of Duke Newall's Vassals to be called to war, and it is likely that by now the momentum of the war will have sway over them. Still, if the King is looking for an opportunity to affect the course of the war before it begins, this may be one.
The Men-at-Arms of House Tarre - 33 Units.
Factors in the Crown's Favour:
- Like all Houses in the Kingdom, the Roseadwyns owe Vassalage to the Crown.
- The Tarres are close relatives of House Skanler of Farcastle, who our investigation suggests will remain loyal to the Crown.
Factors in the Foxworths' Favour:Factors Against the Crown:
- The Houses in the Foxworth Duchy also owe Vassalage to Fairstrand.
- ser Krann Engelbrecht, one of the Tarres' Vassals, is one of the very few survivors of The Battle of Southmarket, which was perpetrated by a Dualist Black Knight, so they are likely to be in favour of the Foxworths' move to eradicate them.
- ser Newall Foxworth has for his Squire Tadd Tarre, the Heir to Sentinel Point.
- ser Linly Staedmon, another of the Tarre Vassals, is a known agitator against the Crown.
In conclusion, I feel confident in saying that the Tarres will side with the Foxworths, despite Lady Jaide's close relation to Duchess Jaenis Skanler. As with the other Houses in the Duchy, they have also already called their banners and are engaged in Duke Newall's war with Irogonie already.
The Men-at-Arms of House Blackbar - 49 Units.
Factors in the Crown's Favour:
- Like all Houses in the Kingdom, the Blackbars owe Vassalage to the Crown.
- Alise Blackbar-Tallman, the wife of Duke Darron Blackbar, has a seat on the King's Royal Council.
- As a result of Alise's position as Royal Seneschal, the Crown has had a large part in the successful reconstruction of Summerswind.
Factors in the Foxworths' Favour:
- As a House on the borders of Somercrag, the Blackbars stand to expand their land through conquest.
- Lady Ophelia Foxworth-Hayford has a close relationship with the Blackbars.
- ser Rodnar Blackbar, the brother of Duke Darron, is married to the Heir to the throne of The Kingdom of Rotheval, so it is likely that Queen Margaret III Cimber will have some sway over the Blackbars' decision.
In conclusion, it is not obvious which way the Blackbars will decide. They are likely to be heavily influenced by the Rothevalians, but equally, they may be swayed by appropriate action from our own King.
It is fortunate, perhaps, that Darron is un-warlike, and that ser Rodnar is in Rotheval, so that there is no-one but ser Edeline Blackbar who might have to experience to lead their house's forces in the field. Were he in Somercrag it is likely that ser Rodnar would have answered Duke Newall Foxworth's impassioned call for aid from the former members of Sola's Vanguard, and that may have tipped the balance in the Foxworths' favour, as you will see it is likely to do with several lesser houses.
Had this happened just two years ago, Lord Croll would still have been at the head of his house, a sure ally of the Crown, and his decades of leadership would have held the Duchy firm against the Foxworths. As it is, Darron's relationship with his Vassals is yet young, and is unlikely to be enough to sway them.
The Men-at-Arms of House Durbach - 13 Units.
Factors in the Crown's Favour:
- Like all Houses in the Kingdom, the Durbachs owe Vassalage to the Crown.
Factors in the Foxworths' Favour:Factors Against the Crown:
- As a House on the borders of Somercrag, the Durbachs stand to expand their land through conquest.
- The Foxworths have a close relationship with the Durbachs, having had their support in dealing with their Black Cities.
- ser Odric Vortane, a member of a powerful Vassal of House Durbach, died in The Disaster at Cainfield at the hands of a Dualist.
- The Durbachs are a Martial household, and are likely to choose a route which leads to war over one which does not.
- ser Berthold Durbach, Lord of Felweather Keep, is already in the field in support of House Foxworth, having answered Duke Newall Foxworth's plea for support from the former members of Sola's Vanguard.
- There may be a perception amongst some that the King's stance on this issue is hypocritical given the similar circumstances that ignited The Revolution of 441KS - the Durbachs are likely to be amongst these. This is particularly the case with House Durbach, due to The Storming of Felweather Keep during the war for refusing to join the Revolutionary forces.
- Further to the storming of Felweather Keep, Sigbert Durbach, the former Lord of Felweather Keep and father of ser Berthold, has spent the years since the Revolution a prisoner of his own household, separated from his wife.
- The inclination of House Blackbar, to whom House Durbach are sworn, is not yet apparent, and may have some impact on the Durbachs.
In conclusion, I find it extremely unlikely anything will sway House Durbach from declaring for the Foxworths.
It is possible that with ser Berthold already in the field unaccompanied and ser Timos Vortane recently dead, that there are insufficient commanders left to bring their army into a war, however, and perhaps swaying House Blackbar or Honn to the Crown's side might be able to compound that fact enough that their might remains unusable.
The Men-at-Arms of House Epper of Rushwater - 20 Units.
Factors in the Crown's Favour:
- Like all Houses in the Kingdom, the Eppers owe Vassalage to the Crown.
Factors in the Foxworths' Favour:
- The Rushwater Eppers are still very close to the Epperton Eppers, and ser Bramble Epper is already in the field supporting Duke Newall Foxworth.
- The inclination of House Blackbar, to whom House Epper are sworn, is not yet apparent, and may have some impact on the Eppers.
In conclusion, it seems that the Rushwater Eppers are likely to back the Foxworths, if only because of the influence of the Epperton Eppers. However their support is weak, and would be weaker still if the Blackbars declared for the Crown.
The Men-at-Arms of House Honn - 13 Units.
Factors in the Crown's Favour:Factors Against the Foxworths:
- Like all Houses in the Kingdom, the Honns owe Vassalage to the Crown.
- ser Marleigh Honn-Blackbar, the wife of Lord Corbus Honn, was a casualty of The Tourney at Fairstrand 441KS.
Factors in the Foxworths' Favour:
- As a House on the borders of Somercrag, the Honns stand to expand their land through conquest.
- Bailin Sawler-Honn, the brother of Lord Byrron Honn, is married to Jaron Sawler, the Foxworths' Chancellor.
- The inclination of House Blackbar, to whom House Honn are sworn, is not yet apparent, and may have some impact on the Honns.
In conclusion, it seems that the Honns are likely to back the Foxworths. However their support is weak, and would be weaker still if the Blackbars declared for the Crown.
The Men-at-Arms of House Tallman - 15 Units.
Factors in the Crown's Favour:
- Like all Houses in the Kingdom, the Tallmans owe Vassalage to the Crown.
- Alise Blackbar-Tallman, the sister of Lord Erac Tallman, has a position as Seneschal on the Royal Council.
- As a result of Alise's position as Royal Seneschal, the Crown has had a large part in the successful reconstruction of Summerswind.
Factors in the Foxworths' Favour:Factors Against the Crown:
- The Tallmans benefitted greatly from The Somercrag Rescue Effort of 448KS, an effort which the Foxworths had a considerable part in organising.
- Despite the successful Reopening of Summerswind in 445KS, Lord Erac still holds some level of ill-feeling toward King Tyon for his percieved part in The Razing of Summerswind.
- The inclination of House Blackbar, to whom House Tallman are sworn, is not yet apparent, and may have some impact on the Tallmans.
- Lord Erac now has for his wife Charlyse Tallman-Percy, a Rothevalian Noblewoman, so it is likely that the decision of Queen Margaret III Cimber will have some impact on their decision also.
- Lord Erac had some involvement in The Shadow Council of Bayglen, a faction created against the rule of House Cray of Bayglen during the King's absence during 442KS. This might be assumed to be a point in the Foxworths' favour, except that that council was disbanded by the intervention of ser Newall Foxworth, so is as much against them as it is for.
In conclusion, it seems that there is as much in favour of the Crown as against them, and the Tallmans are likely undecided, and therefore ripe for influence. If the Rothevalians or the Blackbars were to be swayed to supporting the Crown, it is likely the Tallmans would follow, but similarly if either or both of those were to declare for the Foxworths it is equally likely the Tallmans might go that way.
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